August 2022 Nickel & Surcharge Update
Monthly Nickel and Surcharge Update
August 2022 Update
Thanks for reading the Ram Alloys Monthly Nickel and 316L s/c update, intended to help our valued customers make educated business decisions.
Pricing Uncertainty Continues:
- August 316L s/c decreased again, to a low we have not seen since March.
- This would indicate the previously suggested peak...
- However....September's projection sees us back in the $2.00/# range.
- Could be a bumpy end to the year
- New export taxes impacting metal prices: Indonesia and India
- Articles below
- Both August Base Prices and Energy s/c increase
- Russian gas cuts will be a problem (see article below)
Current Take
SECTION 232 EU TRQ: We continue to hear some EU steel being hit with the 25% tariff during Q2. This compounds the current pricing uncertainty and may be overlooked.
LEAD TIMES: Mill lead times remain well into 2023/2024, with capacity limitations at all levels. Unfortunately, it appears this situation will not be solved until sometime next year, which is the primary reason for recent base price hikes (below).
PRICING: August surcharges fell but we finally saw an increase in the energy s/c. We expect that trend to continue, especially as we near the winter months. The mills finally issued the threatened base price increases, 7% to 12% across the board, offsetting some of the s/c decreases. We once again need to monitor the USD, as it appears it may have been the culprit behind the Ni pricing slide, but if the US enters a recession, the reverse could happen. (see charts and articles below). Also, recent export taxes by India and Indonesia will drive up prices.
Story to watch in 2022 (update): 2021 Energy and Aerospace demand for stainless steel and nickel alloys, while up from 2020, is nowhere near historical levels. Either sector can substantially disrupt an already discombobulated supply chain with traditional consumption.
Update: Aerospace and energy remain healthy. Increased demand that was forecasted for Q3-Q1 has been confirmed.
Yearly/Monthly 316L s/c and Ni Charts
Industry News
Click the links to read the articles below:
- Dollar slides to one month low upon recession fears
- Chinese Metal Tycoon who imploded the LME Ni walks away with billions
- Indonesia issues new Ni Export Tax
- LME scrap contracts see losses, increased trading
- The current supply and demand impact of Ni
- Chinese stainless steel future prices projected to increase
- India issues export tax on steel
- Russian gas cuts EU's economic hope
EU Quota Info
EU Quota System Highlights:
- Quotas by EU country, not mill, and by HTS Code, not grade
- Link: Unofficial steel country quotas
- Quarterly volumes based on a first come/first served bases
- Link: US Customs and Border Protection Quota Bulletins
- Link: US Customs and Border Protection Quota Utilizations found in its Commodity Status Reports
- Imported volumes > quota assessed a 25% tariff
- Exclusions apply, but adjustments under consideration
- Chaos and confusion are a certainty, clarity sometime late Q1/early Q2
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