December 2022 Nickel & Surcharge Update
Monthly Nickel and Surcharge Update
December 2022 Update
Thanks for reading the Ram Alloys Monthly Nickel and 316L s/c update, intended to help our valued customers make educated business decisions.
Different Month... Different Story...
- 316L Surcharges raise in November... not due to energy costs but raw material costs
- Energy sees a slight decrease in November while raw materials increase
- More base price increases haunted the month of November
- A handful of mills increased their base price anywhere between 6% - 12%
- We expect this to flatten in the months to come
- Lead times extended once again
- Lead times are well into Q3/Q4 2023 as demand hasn't slowed and supply is hard to find
Current Take
SECTION 232 EU TRQ: Quotas are full and tariffs are being accessed. One strategy is to delay inbound until Q1 2023.
LEAD TIMES: Mixed situation: some mills declined new orders, some mills are opening up new capacity. Our gut leads us to believe the lead times will ease Q2 2023. So although there is a supply/demand imbalance, negatively tilting towards supply (price = increase), that may flip in the near future.
PRICING: While alloy surcharges are far form May highs, Q4 costs, previously predicted to increase, will hopefully stabilize. Why?
- Base price increases (yes, again)
- Steady energy surcharge decrease
- Rising nickel
- Import/Export duties
- Supply shortages
- Surcharge increase
Story to watch in 2022 (update): 2021 Energy and Aerospace demand for stainless steel and nickel alloys, while up from 2020, is nowhere near historical levels. Either sector can substantially disrupt an already discombobulated supply chain with traditional consumption.
Update: This was indeed a story to watch in 2022. Buckle up for next year as we expect to see further demand bumps.
Yearly/Monthly 316L s/c and Ni Charts
Industry News
Click the links to read the articles below:
- JERA expects fire-hit Freeport LNG Texas shipments to fully resume by March
- Column: LME tightens restraints as nickel turns unruly again
- Nickel IPO puts Jakarta at centre of China EV Boom
- Cold weather could cause French power cuts next week
- Steel Prices Hammered By China's Zero-Covid Flip-Flop
- Airbus says to decouple from Russian titanium 'in months'
- EUR/USD falls below 1.0500 after US NFP data
EU Quota Info
EU Quota System Highlights:
- Quotas by EU country, not mill, and by HTS Code, not grade
- Quarterly volumes based on a first come/first served bases
- Link: US Customs and Border Protection Quota Bulletins
- Link: US Customs and Border Protection Quota Utilizations found in its Commodity Status Reports
- Imported volumes > quota assessed a 25% tariff
- Exclusions apply, but adjustments under consideration
Ram Alloys is a niche service center supplying a complete inventory of stainless steel, nickel products, pump shaft quality bars, and boat shaft quality bars in a full range of standard grades. Value-added services include comprehensive and customized processing options, prompt shipping, same-day order turnaround, and 24/7 availability. We're here to ensure that your procurement needs are met quickly and accurately, minimizing schedule impacts and return material authorizations. Request a quote today!