December 2024 Nickel & Surcharge Update
Monthly Nickel and Surcharge Update
December 2024 Update
Thanks for reading the Ram Alloys Monthly Nickel and 316L s/c update, intended to help our valued customers make educated business decisions.
2024 STABLE PRICING YET WEAKER DEMAND 2025 OPTIMISTIC YET UNCERTAIN
- As predicted, December surcharges decreased back to the yearly average
- The monthly swings in 2021-2023 (>$0.60/#) were not present in 2024
- 2024 High = $1.50/#
- 2024 Low = $1.30/#
- Longshoreman Port Strike: threat remains for January 15, 2025, plan accordingly.
- Canadian Port dispute in binding Arbitration (link below) --> Major US impact
- ~20% of USA trade arrives via Western Canadian Ports
- Western USA ports already strained due to Eastern Longshoreman Strike
- USA ILA confirms intent to strike (link below)
- President Elect Trump threatens tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China
- Which countries will be added to the Tariff list next?
Current Take
RAW MATERIAL PRICES: 2025 surcharges will likely be a mix of 2023 and 2024. This is good news if you like consistency (2022 was a mess).
Although we expect nickel to steadily rise in 2025 and beyond, it will not explode as once believed due to:
- Less enthusiastic Electric Vehicle demand;
- Development of Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries, which do not contain nickel or cobalt; and
- Increasing Indonesian nickel supply
LEAD TIMES: lead times reduced from 2023 to 2024, and while that may hold true for the first half of 2025, we expect mill lead times to extend Q42025 and into 2026.
BASE PRICES: The recent base price increases are expected to remain in 2025 due to perceived rise in demand and lower inventories.
SECTION 232: The TRQ system is scheduled to expire 12/31/2025, but everything is subject to change with a Trump "Presidential Proclamation." We will attempt to keep you current on this evolving situation.
Yearly/Monthly 316L s/c and Ni Charts
Industry News
Click the links to read the articles below:
- USA Longshoreman negotiations break down
- USA Longshoreman ready to strike
- Canadian Port Strike in Binding Arbitration
- Trump Announces First Tariffs
- Nickel Market Steady
EU Quota Info
EU Quota System Highlights:
- Quotas by EU country, not mill, and by HTS Code, not grade
- Link: Unofficial steel country quotas
- Quarterly volumes based on a first come/first served bases
- Link: US Customs and Border Protection Quota Bulletins
- Link: US Customs and Border Protection Quota Utilizations found in its Commodity Status Reports
- Imported volumes > quota assessed a 25% tariff
- Exclusions apply, but adjustments under consideration
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