March 2023 Nickel & Surcharge Update
Monthly Nickel and Surcharge Update
March 2023 Update
Thanks for reading the Ram Alloys Monthly Nickel and 316L s/c update, intended to help our valued customers make educated business decisions.
ANOTHER RISE!!!
- 316L Surcharges once again SURGED in February...not due to energy costs but rising raw material costs, especially Moly
- Energy continued its decline in February
- Base prices remain unchanged from the January increase
- We expect costs to remain high, then possibly flatten in Q3/Q4
- 2023 Pricing will primarily be driven by extended lead times
- Lead times remain well into 2024, with some extending to Q3 2024
Current Take
RAW MATERIAL PRICES: Raw material prices once again climbed in the month of February resulting in an increased surcharge. Declining Nickel is the primary reason we are projecting a decrease in April. (see chart below)
LEAD TIMES: Depending on the grade, we are looking at mid Q1 2024 to early Q2 2024. Expect this to remain constant due to strong demand, labor shortages, and raw material input supply...plus international conflict.
BASE PRICES: Mills cooled off for the month as we did not see an additional base price increase. Base prices are expected to stay at current levels for an extended period of time.
SECTION 232: Mills have hit their quota for Q1 2023 which means the 25% tariff is back on inbound material. KEEP IN MIND that the tariff is set to expire at the end of 2023. What will the Washington do?!?!
Yearly/Monthly 316L s/c and Ni Charts
Industry News
Click the links to read the articles below:
- Column: Nickel's electric dreams turn into a pricing nightmare
- U.S. to impose 200% tariff on aluminum from Russia - White House
- UK regulator investigates London Metal Exchange nickel suspension
- Daily Nickel/Stainless Steel Briefing
- US' stainless steel imports rise in Jan m-o-m due to high domestic prices
- BHP Group says reform to LME nickel contract 'long overdue'
- Lithium Prices Have Crashed Spectacularly, Here's What Next
- Oil Prices Fall On Rumors Of An OPEC Split
- U.S. Oil Drilling Activity Retreats For Second Week In A Row
EU Quota Info
EU Quota System Highlights:
- Quotas by EU country, not mill, and by HTS Code, not grade
- Quarterly volumes based on a first come/first served bases
- Link: US Customs and Border Protection Quota Bulletins
- Link: US Customs and Border Protection Quota Utilizations found in its Commodity Status Reports
- Imported volumes > quota assessed a 25% tariff
- Exclusions apply, but adjustments under consideration
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