March 2024 Nickel & Surcharge Update
Monthly Nickel and Surcharge Update
March 2024 Update
Thanks for reading the Ram Alloys Monthly Nickel and 316L s/c update, intended to help our valued customers make educated business decisions.
FEBRUARY INCREASE ERASED!
- 316L Surcharge ERASED its February gains
- Moly was the main driver for the February increase. All other raw material elements (Nickel, Chrome, Iron) remained steady
- Premium grades are still in high demand in 2024
- What will Nickel do in the months to come?
Current Take
RAW MATERIAL PRICES: Raw material surcharges erased its gains from February as raw material elements saw a slight decrease. While this was not expected, we do still believe with the current rise in Nickel, surcharges will begin to increase. (See charts below)
LEAD TIMES: Long lead times were the story of 2023 due to high demand, low VIM, VAR, and finishing capacity, and labor shortages. All premium grades are into Q2 2025 and some nickel grades into 2026!!. With the strong demand for premium grades we expect this to remain the story. As for commodity grades, lead times are still shrinking, but pricing may increase in the months to come.
BASE PRICES: As we were predicting, mills issue their first base price increase of 2024 on just premium grades. Premium grades are still hard to find even though commodity grades are available. Due to this high demand, mills will continue to increase their pricing and draw out lead times. Expect this trend to continue for the next 2 years at the very least.
Yearly/Monthly 316L s/c and Ni Charts
LME Ni Stock (up) vs LME Ni $/# (down)
Industry News
Click the links to read the articles below:
- Acerinox sees steel market improving after 2023 profit more than halves
- OPEC+ members extend oil output cuts to second quarter
- Nickel rout is energy-transition warning for West
- Low-Cost Nickel from Indonesia is Flooding The Market
- For many in China, the economy feels like it is in recession
EU Quota Info
EU Quota System Highlights:
- Quotas by EU country, not mill, and by HTS Code, not grade
- Quarterly volumes based on a first come/first served bases
- Link: US Customs and Border Protection Quota Bulletins
- Link: US Customs and Border Protection Quota Utilizations found in its Commodity Status Reports
- Imported volumes > quota assessed a 25% tariff
- Exclusions apply, but adjustments under consideration
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