May 2023 Nickel & Surcharge Update
Monthly Nickel and Surcharge Update
May 2023 Update
Thanks for reading the Ram Alloys Monthly Nickel and 316L s/c update, intended to help our valued customers make educated business decisions.
WHAT IS NORMAL?
- 316L Surcharges decreased SIGNIFICANTLY
- Moly took a huge nosedive during the month
- Energy surcharges decrease as we are well into the Spring months.
- Base prices stay consistent but still high relative to previous years
- Long lead times are the main driver for 2023 pricing
- Lead times are still well into Q4 2024
Current Take
RAW MATERIAL PRICES: Raw material surcharges tanked in April as they continued their downward trend. Moly was the main reason for the large drop.
LEAD TIMES: Long lead times will be the story of 2023 due to high demand, low VAR and finishing capacity, and labor shortages. All grades are into Q2 2024 and beyond. Uncertainty and apprehension to buy may rein them in, but the equal and opposite reaction may be stock outs...not helpful. The balancing act continues.
BASE PRICES: Most mills continue to stay consistent with their base prices, with some incrementally increasing base prices on top of the Q1 bump. We expect this to remain the story going forward. Simply put: mills do not need business.
SECTION 232: Quota is still open for Q2 but how long will this last? We are nearing 50% after the first month, and once quota is filled the 25% tariff will be back. The 25% tariff was in play during Q1. Keep in mind, the quota system is set to expire this year.
Industry News
Click the links to read the articles below:
- The Volatility of Nickel And Stainless Steel Markets
- Nickel Surplus Weighs On Stainless Steel Prices
- Oil falls 8% to five-week low on US debt ceiling, interest rate hike worries
- Iran seizes oil tanker in Gulf, U.S. Navy says
- Factbox: Germany's LNG import terminals tackle challenges
- Column: Nickel faces huge supply glut as Indonesian output booms
- More than half of aluminum in LME warehouses produced in Russia
EU Quota Info
EU Quota System Highlights:
- Quotas by EU country, not mill, and by HTS Code, not grade
- Quarterly volumes based on a first come/first served bases
- Link: US Customs and Border Protection Quota Bulletins
- Link: US Customs and Border Protection Quota Utilizations found in its Commodity Status Reports
- Imported volumes > quota assessed a 25% tariff
- Exclusions apply, but adjustments under consideration
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