November 2023 Nickel & Surcharge Update
Monthly Nickel and Surcharge Update
November 2023 Update
Thanks for reading the Ram Alloys Monthly Nickel and 316L s/c update, intended to help our valued customers make educated business decisions.
HUGE DECREASE IN NOVEMBER!
- 316L Surcharge took a huge hit in November to continue its decline.
- Raw material elements (Nickel and Moly) took the biggest hit to drive surcharges lower.
- As of mid-October the Q4 quota was 60% full. Lets see how much longer it takes to fill
- Long lead times are still the main driver for 2023 pricing with demand staying strong and limited availability
Current Take
RAW MATERIAL PRICES: Raw material surcharges continue to nosedive as we start to close out 2023. Nickel and Moly were the two elements that were mainly responsible for the sharp drop.
LEAD TIMES: Long lead times have been the story of 2023 due to high demand, low VIM, VAR, and finishing capacity, and labor shortages. All grades are into Q4 2024 and beyond. Uncertainty and apprehension to buy may rein them in, but the equal and opposite reaction may be stock outs.
BASE PRICES: Base prices increased during October. All premium grades took a 5% - 10% increase. We expect this to be the last Base Price increase for 2023.
SECTION 232: Q4 quota is still open... hopefully. As of October 23rd the Q4 quota was 60% full. We are expecting the quota to fill within the next few weeks as many mills were storing material here in the US in Free Trade Zones. Reminder that the quota system is set to expire at the end of 2023! What is going to happen?
FLASHBACK!: We said this back in 2021 and it still seems true today... "The reverse lag is also true in a declining cost market (i.e. reduced surcharges take time to result in reduced sales prices). Accordingly, if possible, you may receive a benefit by delaying purchases in that scenario."
Industry News
Click the links to read the articles below:
- METALS-Base metals climb as traders gauge China Stimulus, demand hopes
- London Metal Exchange Explores New Nickel Contract Possibilities
- LME Week consensus is a bright future but short-term pain
- Bears bet big that nickel can close the product gap
- US dollar falls as markets believe Fed is done hiking rates
- Europe's steel sector faces recession in 2024
EU Quota Info
EU Quota System Highlights:
- Quotas by EU country, not mill, and by HTS Code, not grade
- Quarterly volumes based on a first come/first served bases
- Link: US Customs and Border Protection Quota Bulletins
- Link: US Customs and Border Protection Quota Utilizations found in its Commodity Status Reports
- Imported volumes > quota assessed a 25% tariff
- Exclusions apply, but adjustments under consideration
Ram Alloys is a niche service center supplying a complete inventory of stainless steel, nickel products, pump shaft quality bars, and boat shaft quality bars in a full range of standard grades. Value-added services include comprehensive and customized processing options, prompt shipping, same-day order turnaround, and 24/7 availability. We're here to ensure that your procurement needs are met quickly and accurately, minimizing schedule impacts and return material authorizations. Request a quote today!