Current Take

RAW MATERIAL PRICES: 

RAW MATERIAL PRICES: As expected, November's 316L increased, but not as much as predicted. We believe this is due to a change in the mil s/c formula, as November's Ni component was $0.06/# LESS than a prior month with the same Ni price as November. If the Ni price is the same, the Ni s/c component should be the same, but that wasn't the case. However, this s/c bump will be short-lived and December will drop. Again, inventories need to decrease and demand must increase in order for prices to noticeably rise. Interesting chart below: LME Ni stocks have soared and the spread is widening to levels not seen since 2021 (which had to work through the COVID inventory buildup).

LEAD TIMES: remelted grades (extended: 70-100 weeks), airmelted grades (normal 16-40 weeks). However, we are seeing limited capacity for some airmelted grades in forged bar. Lead times vary by country of origin, grade, and size. The Longshoreman strike could impact further.

BASE PRICES: More mills joined the base price increase party. Rising energy and sea freight costs are a concern, but this likely the result of mills trying to capitalize on an expected demand increase in late 2025/early 2026, as they have suffered since May 2023.

SECTION 232: The TRQ system is scheduled to expire 12/31/2025; however, this can be altered by "Presidential Proclamation." Today is election day, but when will we know what?