Current Take

RAW MATERIAL PRICES: 2024 surcharges have been relatively stable. Inventories are higher than recent years, and demand is less than recent years. However, a Geopolitical storm is brewing - war + economic stimulus - that may result in price hikes. Time will tell if it's fake or has staying power. We feel like inventories need to decrease and demand must increase in order for prices to noticeably rise. However, our internal industry health metric appears to indicate 2025 price increases. Two to three more months' data is needed, so stay tuned. Interesting chart below: Ni spiked on 09/18, same day as interest rates dropped 50 bps. Monitor the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) in 2025. Although CBAM takes effect in 2026, mills will likely start adjusting to higher priced refined Ni in 2025, as CBAM limits the use of cheap Nickel Pig Iron.

LEAD TIMES: Story remains the same - remelted grades (extended: 70-100 weeks), airmelted grades (normal 16-40 weeks). Lead times vary by country of origin, grade, and size.

BASE PRICES: Majority of mill held base pricing in September, while a few hiked. Some cited increased activity as a reason, others likely baked-in expected energy cost volatility. This may indicate a decrease in inventory levels (mills are smart).

SECTION 232: The TRQ system is scheduled to expire 12/31/2025; however, this can be altered by "Presidential Proclamation." Have fun predicting future actions.