Current Take

RAW MATERIAL PRICES: Raw material surcharges were mixed for the month of July. Moly decreased, Nickel decreased (significant), Chrome stayed the same, Iron stayed the same, and energy stayed the same. Due to this, the 316L surcharged saw a large decrease (mostly due to nickel). Nickel surcharge are still in a decline that is similar to the last few weeks. The global nickel market is overstocked which is driving the price lower. Our previous thoughts of nickel rising through the year is starting to look incorrect as many news articles are saying Nickel will continue to drop. Some experts are saying the nickel supply will tighten in the Fall which will cause prices to increase.

LEAD TIMES: All premium grades are into Q4 2025 - Q2 2026 and some nickel grades into Q4 2026!!. With the strong demand for premium grades we expect this to remain the story. As for commodity grades, lead times are short compared to one year ago. Back to normal considering the last few years.

BASE PRICES: No new base price increases during the month of July. Reminder: Mills increased pricing anywhere from 2% - 10% depending on the grade and size. Premium grades are still hard to find even though commodity grades are available. Due to this high demand, mills will continue to increase their pricing and draw out lead times.

SECTION 232: As of now, Q3 quota is still open. Q2 quota came down to the last week from Europe! Reminder: this is a totally different story than what happened in 2022. The election is right around the corner... what will happen?